Bee fly hovering on forget-me-nots

Spotted in the jungle behind Herald House today

Indicative votes: Results in sequence and plan for Monday

Analysis of Wednesday's "indicative votes" on the way forward for Brexit.

Results in the order voted on and announced, For-Against:
160-400 No Deal
188-283 Common Market 2.0 (aka Norway+)
65-377 EFTA & EEA (single market without customs union)
264-272 Customs Union (basic permanent customs union for starters)
237-307 Labour's Plan ("a" customs union and strong single market links, rights etc.)
184-293 Revoke Article 50 (if necessary to avoid No Deal)
268-295 Public Vote
139-422 WTO Terms

Arguably, Speaker Bercow made a mistake in declaring after each verdict "The Noes have it" because no one option "has it" yet. Instead, if you take account of the difference between Yes and No, you get this sequence:

Results in order by "goal difference" (all negative):
1. Customs Union: -8
2. Public Vote: -27
3. Labour's Plan: -70
4. Common Market 2.0: -95
5. Revoke to avoid No Deal: -109
6. No Deal: -240
7. WTO Terms: -283
8. EFTA & EEA: -312

However, it's simpler to forego "goal difference", and you get almost the same sequence by taking number of Yeses for each option, though the top two options swap places, which clearly could be significant*.

By focussing on the number of Yeses, it's easy to see how many votes are to be redistributed, each time the option with the least votes is eliminated. More importantly, the Noes are irrelevant for these purposes, since what we want to discover is the option of which most MPs are in favour. If someone doesn't put a Yes beside an option, that's effectively a No anyway. Therefore let's just count the Yeses from now on.

Results in order by number of Yeses:
1. Public Vote: 268
2. Customs Union: 264
3. Labour's Plan: 237
4. Common Market 2.0: 188
5. Revoke to avoid No Deal: 184
6. No Deal: 160
7. WTO Terms: 139
8. EFTA & EEA: 65

So on Monday, eliminate number 8 (EFTA &EEA) and ask its 65 supporters to vote again for one of the remaining seven options (eight if Mrs May's Deal is added). The next option to be eliminated would be whichever one ended up last out of the remaining options, probably either WTO Terms or No Deal - but we will only know when the votes are recast.

The process of elimination should be repeated, preferably discounting the Noes as irrelevant, till only two options remain. At that point the top one is the most favoured compromise option and should be adopted by the government.

Rearrangement of the ballot paper to separate two procedural options

1. In Wednesday's selected options, the Public Vote option was an anomaly, as it doesn't describe a future relationship. This can be resolved by moving it to a separate section of the ballot paper, to apply irrespective of which option is selected.

2. The same can be said for the Revoke to Avoid No Deal option, as that is not a way forward, simply an emergency brake in the event of no other plan being agreed. That too could have its own separate section on the ballot.


Suggested ballot paper layout & possible wording for Monday's vote

The option "EFTA and EEA" has been eliminated, having received the fewest votes. Additionally, the options "Public Vote" and "Revoke to Avoid No Deal" have been separated from the rest as they are procedural matters, which apply regardless of the other results."

Vote for one only of the following options. The option with the fewest votes will be eliminated and the voting procedure repeated with the remaining options:

1. The government's recommended withdrawal agreement and future arrangement
2. Customs Union basic foundation for a new deal as proposed by Kenneth Clarke
3. Labour's Plan for a form of Customs Union, close single market arrangement, rights etc.
4. Common Market 2.0 aka Norway+ which joins EFTA but not necessarily indefinitely
5. Leave with No Deal
6. Leave on WTO Terms

Answer Yes or No to the following questions:
a) In the event of no deal agreed with two days to go, revoke Article 50?: Yes or No
b) Should the eventual deal agreed be put back to the people with an option to Remain?: Yes or No

* 29/3/2019: Correction: Changed text to show that you don't get the same sequence by taking only the Yeses, rather the top two options swap places. Also added a mock-up of the possible ballot paper as a basis for Monday's votes.

Vehicle fire, Greenford Road

Phonecam screenshot

The aftermath

Short Story of the Month, April 2019

The Willesden Herald New Short Stories Story of the Month

April 2019: Name by Sergey Bolmat

He looks at Anne with marked indifference, as if expecting her to introduce herself and explain the purpose of her visit, and then, after a second, makes a little twitch with the left corner of his lips indicating a smile.

‘Well,’ he says, ‘look who’s here.’ 

Photo by Natalia Nikitin (detail)

Sergey Bolmat published his first novel in Russia to great critical acclaim. To date, he has published three novels, two collections of short stories, many articles and essays in various periodicals, and a biography of Nikolay Chernyshevsky. Some of these books were shortlisted for literary awards, translated into many European languages, adapted for radio, and optioned and developed for film. His first short story written in English appeared in The Higgs Weldon.

The old dead tree has fallen

Willesden Herald Exclusive (tada!)

Fallen tree at the corner of South Vale and Wood End Road, Harrow

The old dead tree has fallen in the recent gales (Wednesday night, I think.) It's lying across the path that starts the walk along this small section of the Capital Ring. 

End of the line for the Water Poet pub

The Water Poet in Folgate Street closes thanks to British Land's redevelopment of Norton Folgate for a hideous corporate plaza! pic.twitter.com/ftCTwjfWU2

— Spitalfields Life (@thegentleauthor) March 12, 2019

According to this, the Water Poet corner pub in Folgate Street is closing to make way for "a corporate plaza." London is disappearing, welcome to nowhere.

EU Settlement Scheme sign

Bus shelter, Greenford Road

The sign says, "I'm an EU citizen, how can I find out more about staying in the UK? To find out more about the EU Settlement Scheme, including how and when you need to apply, visit http://gov.uk/euexit".

Car wreck on Wood End Road

Car wreck on Wood End Road, Harrow today. Let's hope no one was badly hurt.

Plankton: Minemizu "Black Water Dive"

Japanese Underwater Photographer Ryo Minemizu (@ryo_minemizu) captures the beauty of plankton. Minemizu developed the Black Water Dive, a night dive with underwater lighting to bring out the best of larval plankton pic.twitter.com/TbV1VuRKKz

— 41 Strange (@41Strange) February 26, 2019

Keep Saturday March 23rd free! #PutItToThePeople

#PutItToThePeople March.

Join us in London on March 23rd for the ‘Put It To The People March’ to make the calls for a #PeoplesVote too loud to ignore. Please RT:https://t.co/z4hWRpcCPT pic.twitter.com/ey8kWVMEhK

— People's Vote UK (@peoplesvote_uk) February 16, 2019

Seagull

Sudbury Hill, Harrow this afternoon

Storm Erik - a timely warning

This is the moment a man fell from a promenade into the water in 2018. Passers-by naturally rushed to help. They too found themselves in difficulty. All escaped with their lives. If you see someone else in trouble, call 999 or 112 and ask for the Coastguard. #ThrowbackThursday pic.twitter.com/GrFc265HIu

— RNLI (@RNLI) February 7, 2019

Don't get near the waves in a dangerous place like this (above, from 2018). I was nearly swept off my feet into the sea from some huge rocks many years ago. You just don't know when a bigger wave will crash in. (Ed.)

A walk through Grove Farm, North Greenford

"The road not taken" (took the right hand one, left goes west)

The not very narrow path to the not very deep north

Not much of a path here. Go up left towards exit or right to follow the stream. 

View towards the landmark Kellogg Tower (now flats) across the stream

Another view from the railway bridge today

Midday, and snow from last night has not melted yet.

Views from the rail bridge on a cold but sunny day

Chiltern Line going west away from Sudbury Hill Harrow

Chiltern Line going east towards Sudbury Hill Harrow

Update:  Later in the afternoon, the sky became completely overcast and it rained steadily with some sleet and snow at times, till nightfall.

Spare poems going cheap

Breda Rainey


Breda Rainey you would
hammock in the rainy box
chaps sodden from the night dew.

Breda Rainey you wear
tiny leaves of the hedgerow
in your hair.

Breda Rainey you are,
though you heave a pushchair,
forever garlanded in box.

.

The Weight of Words


The number of all the raindrops that have ever fallen on Ireland,
in words,
would not outweigh
a jinny-joe.

The number of all the snowflakes that have ever fallen on Japan,
in words,
would not outweigh
a cobweb.

The glints of sunlight on every ocean,
the birth cries of every newborn,
the sighs of every unrequited lover since Eden,
in words,
would not outweigh
a horse.

.

Canal of Days

Life is a canal, on which we are narrow boats

with no reverse gear.

Each night, each sleep, is a lock.

We enter the lock and the water of yesterday is released,

till we emerge into tomorrow, to another gated day.

Behind us and above that again,

lie the days gone by. Ahead only today,

its prospect, its gate, its fall.

Gone the hundreds, hail the one.

.

--
Stephen Moran

Superb John Prine session w/ Gordon Lightfoot in the room

Great atmosphere, anecdotes, wonderful songs and a brilliant performance.
And it must be said, "not a dry eye in the house." "Laughter through tears" is another stock phrase that comes to mind.

Police appeal: Murder of Jason Isaacs

Seen suspicious-looking two mopeds with pillion passengers not wearing helmets?: read this. The photo is of a poster on Whitton Avenue near Oldfield Circus: it's been damaged. "Appeal to find Jason Isaacs' killer: police re-visit murder scene in Northolt" https://t.co/dvAQAdPkgq pic.twitter.com/jEyvRMnyGm

— Willesden Herald | New Short Stories (@storyofthemonth) January 1, 2019

Short Story of the Month, January 2019

The Willesden Herald New Short Stories Story of the Month

January 2019: Disappearing by Barbara Robinson

… Later, John places the kettle on the hob. I’m sitting at his kitchen

table again, rolling another joint. My eyes are level with his waistband

as he leans across me to take cups from a shelf, the tip of his tan-coloured

leather belt close to my face. I yank it …

Barbara Robinson has an MA in Creative Writing from MMU and reads at literary events in Manchester. Her short story Supersum was short-listed for the 2016 Willesden Herald prize and her novel Elbow Street shortlisted for the 2018 Andrea Badenoch Fiction Award and longlisted for the Grindstone Literary 2018 Novel Prize. She has had short stories published in Ellipsis Zine and Fictive Dream.

eBikes for Christmas

Lime-E eBikes outside Sudbury Hill tube station, Christmas Eve

It says "£1 to start" on them. There's an app.

Beside a pelican crossing (Greenford Road). Safety from children's viewpoint?

One e-thing leads to another

Following on from the appearance of electric bikes (ebikes, Lime-E brand) outside the two Sudbury Hill stations earlier this week, sure enough on a walk around the area today, two paths are partially blocked for those carrying large shopping bags and or pushing prams or in wheelchairs.

E-bike blocking the path, South Vale

Ebike blocking the path, Wood End Road

Another view of the ebike, Wood End Road. The path slopes here.

Irish language in Kilburn station

"Tá Londain ar oscailt" (London is open) 

Mayor of London "#LondonIsOpen" campaign sign as Gaeilge. It looks like it's been there a while. Kilburn is known for its large Irish population.

E-bikes hit London

Lime-E electronic bikes next to Sudbury Hill Harrow station today

Friday 14 December, update: There are many more, about ten, outside Sudbury Hill underground station this morning, in two ranks. Unfortunately I didn't get a chance to take a photo of them. They are pristine and I doubt anyone has tried to use one as yet. [Ed.]

Short Story of the Month, December 2018

The Willesden Herald New Short Stories Story of the Month

December 2018: Mackerel Point by Richard Lakin

Brenda stood at the top of the stairs.
‘He’s missed us then,’ Colin said.
‘He’ll be back.’ Her role, as always, was to deal with reality, to face up to truth. One of them had too.
‘There’s nothing for us then, love. What did I tell you?’
Brenda gripped the banister and sighed.

Richard Lakin studied chemistry and has worked as a labourer, a journalist, and a policeman on the London Underground. He has published short stories in journals including Londonist, Structo and The Oxonian Review. He has won the Guardian family travel writing prize and Daily Telegraph’s Just Back, travel piece of the year. He lives in Staffordshire and blogs at www.richlakin.wordpress.com

Autumn snaps

Wood End Road

Chiltern Line