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Friday, June 13, 2008

Whither Haltemprice?

David Davis could face challenge from former Sun editor | Politics | guardian.co.uk

"The prime minister would not reveal whether Labour would enter a candidate in Davis's Haltemprice and Howden constituency."

The withdrawal of the Liberals gives Labour a chance to win the constituency, I think. Though Tory-ish Liberals tend to be libertarians I think, a lot of them are tactical anti-Tory voters as well. In 2005 Davis won with 47.5% of the vote. The Liberals had 36.8% and Labour 12.7%, a total of 49.5% (ref.). If you assume that a large slice of Davis's floggers and hangers will defect to Labour, which is now more to their taste, then you could see a win for Labour, if they can find a strong candidate. MacKenzie is bit of a clown, unlikely to get more than the Monster Raving Loony's.

13/6/2008: After Newsnight's report tonight, it appears that the Labour candidate designate doesn't even support the government measure, which makes David Davis's move look even more Reggie Perrin-ish. The only thing he can do now that makes any sense is to defect to the Liberals. (Yeah, yeah, "Liberal Democrats" - gahd, it's as bad a name as Pope John Paul George Ringo or whatever. Like we never knew they were democrats before David Owen joined them.)


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